In the 80s and 90s there was a phenomenal boost in workplace productivity. Why productivity lags, according to alan greenspan. He has argued also persuasively that todays innovations in areas like information and communications technology ict cannot be expected to have as big an economic payoff as those of the past, such as electricity and the automobile. Structural unemployment and the productivity of women, discussion papers 251, northwestern university, center for mathematical studies in economics and management science. American economic history g force books and arts the. Ais implications for productivity, wages, and employment. Robert gordon, a celebrated economic historian and northwestern university professor, addresses these questions in his magisterial new book, the rise and fall of american growth. Gordon, a social sciences professor at northwestern university, is the author of the textbook, macroeconomics, and a member of the national bureau of economic research panel that.
After 150 years, the american productivity miracle is over quartz. Why robert gordon thinks growth is over and what we. The software titles below are offered for academic andor personal use to northwestern faculty and staff or students. Solving the productivity mystery rich lipskithe washington post.
A survey of the new economy solving the paradox special. A member of the national bureau of economic research, his most notable work is in the area of productivity. If an application required for university purposes is not offered at the university, please complete a. Mar 12, 2016 filed under productivity, us in his magisterial new book, the rise and fall of american growth, the northwestern university professor economist robert gordon lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the american way of life was largely a onetime deal. Economist robert gordon has spent his career studying what makes the us. Evidence that trend productivity growth is faster when unemployment is low as in the 1960s and 1990s. According to a recent book by northwestern university economist robert. An american economist who teaches at northwestern university, mr gordon has long been famous in academic. Five puzzles in the behaviour of productivity, investment and innovation. Macroeconomy with a particular interest in unemployment, inflation, and both the longrun and cyclical aspects of labor productivity.
Robert gordon s the rise and fall of american growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism. Why the economic payoff from technology is so elusive. Gordon skillfully lays out myriad information about the history and trends of productivity. Harris professor of the social sciences at northwestern university. The much greater excess of productivity growth over output per person in the. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton economic series of the western world. Us the productivity miracle is over robert gordon says.
Free exchange doing less with more finance and economics. Faltering innovation and the six headwinds, wp 18315, august 2012. Five puzzles in the behaviour of productivity, investment. Two distinguished northwestern university economics professors offered starkly contrasting views of americas economic future tuesday april 27 in a debate billed as a clash of the intellectual titans. Feb 24, 2014 back in august 2012, northwestern university professor robert gordon published a controversial paper titled is u. In a new book, economist robert gordon argues that the period from 1870 to 1970 is a special century that is unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton economic series of the western world robert j. Inflation dynamics and the distribution of income, brookings papers on economic activity, 2005. Standard of living since the civil war is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or. Gordon says computers and the internet, they did give us a lot of productivity growth back in the 90s and early aughts.
Economists such as robert gordon of northwestern university argue that this slump in productivity growth reflects the stagnation of technology. Northwestern economists robert gordon and joel mokyr debate critical issue april 28, 2016. Chief among the doomsayers is robert gordon, whose new book forecasts stagnant productivity for the united states for the foreseeable future. Northwestern economists robert gordon and joel mokyr debate critical issue. But northwestern university professor and famed bear robert gordon has a new paper arguing that technology will not improve economic.
Silicon valley, where many believe that software is eating the world. Robert gordon, the special century, and the prospects for. Robert gordon, professor of economics at northwestern university, discusses his book, the rise and fall of american growth, in which he looks at the growth in the american standard of living. Aug 12, 2016 why are american workers getting less productive. Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds robert j gordon northwestern university and cepr cepr policy insight no.
Gordon argues that all of the epochal advances, from running water and electricity to the internal combustion and jet engines, have been made. Productivity growth in the united states was considerably faster during 200003 than in the boom years of 19952000. Robert gordons notable history of economics and living standards. Robert gordon of northwestern university argues that major technological breakthroughs lie behind us. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university has argued that. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university chalks this up to the fact that we are using methods and procedures that are over a decade old. Some experts think that the current global economic slowdown is a temporary blip in longterm growth. Theyll invest in new software but not in longlasting projects. Gordon northwestern university unemployment and potential output in the 1980s the two most outstanding features to date of the 198384. Robert gordons notable history of economics and living. Jun 02, 2017 economists call this the productivity paradox.
Five puzzles in the behaviour of productivity, investment and. However, robert gordon, an economist at northwestern university and one of the most outspoken neweconomy sceptics a stance that requires considerable courage in america today, is less impressed. Gordon is a wellknown economist and a professor at northwestern university. Mar 09, 2016 in his magisterial new book, the rise and fall of american growth, the northwestern university professor lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the american way of life was. Productivity growth over the past century with a view of the future, nber working papers 15834, national bureau of economic research, inc. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton economic. Interestingly, a prominent voice on the other side of the debate is joel mokyr, gordons colleague at northwestern university, where the two are affectionately known as a kind of economic odd. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university blames diminished innovation. This ebullient productivity performance raises numerous questions about its interpretation and its implications for the future, and these are stated here in the form of five puzzles. Apr 28, 2016 other signs that indicate americas economic heyday is over, gordon said, are that by world war ii the average work week had shrunk from 60 hours to 40, but hasnt changed since, and that productivity growth in the last six years is as slow as its been in u.
Gordon has long been associated with the view that future economic growth will be slower than that of the fairly recent past. Department of economics northwestern university kellogg global hub 2211 campus drive. Nov 20, 2016 robert gordon of northwestern university argues that major technological breakthroughs lie behind us. This is the uncomfortable vision put forward by robert j. D24,e2,e66,j11,j15,o3,o31,o4,q43 abstract this paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. According to robert gordon, growth in the future wont be pretty. The rise and fall of american growth hashtag for twitter users. Department of economics northwestern university kellogg global hub. Lorien kite, financial times in the course of gordon s book, a vivid picture of everyday life as our parents, grandparents, and greatgrandparents lived it emerges. Northwestern university economist robert gordon is one of the foremost tech productivity growth pessimists he might prefer the term realist with his views most fully expressed in his. Gordons key chart of american productivity is below. Yet an expert on productivity, robert gordon of northwestern university, has raised it in a provocative paper. The first, championed by robert gordon, an economist at northwestern university, suggests humanity has run out of big ideas.
It questions the assumption, nearly universal since solows seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. Gordon department of economics northwestern university evanston, il 602082600 tel. Economist robert gordon predicts us productivity growth will slow dramatically. He is the author of a textbook in intermediate macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition, and has completed a new book, the rise and fall of american growth, published by the princeton university press in january, 2016. Us economist robert gordon takes aim at technophiles and their faith in innovation. Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds robert j. Robert gordon of northwestern university, il nu read 242 publications contact robert gordon. The us standard of living since the civil war, princeton university press. Nov 20, 2017 ais implications for productivity, wages, and employment. Gordon northwestern university and nber nabe annual meeting september 30, 2018. Professsor mokyr has a tough road ahead of him if he tries to put a happy face on this. Famed northwestern macroeconomist robert gordon predicts end to lifechanging innovation. August 2004, five puzzles in the behavior of productivity.
Oct 31, 2016 robert gordon, author of the rise and fall of american growth, and joel mokyr, author of a culture of growth, talk about whether, economically, americas best days are in its past. Unlikely to see rapid, techfueled growth in future. Development of the american economy, economic fluctuations and growth, productivity, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Gordon right debated contrastingviews of americas economic future at a northwestern political union event. Back in august 2012, northwestern university professor robert gordon published a controversial paper titled is u. Greenspans grim forecast for growth the washington post. Robert gordon is a macroeconomist with a particular interest in unemployment, inflation, and both the longrun and cyclical aspects of labor productivity. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university chalks this up to the fact that we are using methods and procedures that are over a. The thing is that in the frenzy to be more productive, we as a nation have become a little less so.
My book forecast, going out 25 years in the future, productivity growth of 1. After 150 years, the american productivity miracle is over. Apr 23, 20 the us economy has been expanding wildly for two centuries. But have we, as robert gordon argues, already had the best of the revolution.
Why robert gordon thinks growth is over and what we can. Are so called productivity tools failing to increase. Robert bob gordon is an american economist and the stanley g. Gordon emphasizes his points with a number of graphs showing a slowdown in u. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton.
Gordon, distinguished economist from northwestern university. Dec 28, 2012 recently, robert gordon of northwestern university created a stir by arguing that economic growth is likely to slow sharply indeed, that the age of growth that began in the 18th century may. If the software allows drivers to take up driving jobs with less. He is the author of a textbook in intermediate macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition, and has. He is known for his work on productivity, growth, the causes of unemployment, and airline economics.
Solving the productivity mystery the washington post. Famed northwestern macroeconomist robert gordon predicts end. Robert gordon of northwestern university claims it is so slow because most companies are still operating the same business methods and procedures that have been in place for at least ten years, despite technology changing. Robert gordon is one of the worlds leading experts on inflation, unemployment, and productivity growth.
Rethinking productivity by diane coyle project syndicate. The rise and fall of american growth, the northwestern university professor lays. Gordon northwestern university and nber this version january 20, 2014 this paper provides a sequel to my previous nber working paper is u. Northwestern university s robert gordon is less optimistic. Third industrial revolution will not transform our lives.
This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic. Economists intensely debate what has caused this productivity eclipse. In april economics professors robert gordon and joel mokyr butted heads over the future of americas economic growth in the northwestern political unions annual clash of the intellectual titans, moderated by fellow professor mark witte 87 ma, 97 phd. In this, he challenges the conventional view of economists that economic growth. Martin baily told me about another economist who has a surprising explanation of the paradox robert gordon. If a needed application is not listed, first contact your local it department to see if they have an active license for it. So much innovation has gone into the iphone and all the associated apps, and we dont see a pickup in productivity growth. Northwestern university s robert gordon, for example, predicts that productivity growth will continue to slow as it has done in most developed economies since the mid2000s because todays digital innovations are, in his view, less transformative than earlier advances like the flush toilet, radio, and the internal combustion engine.
Standard of living since the civil war is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or history. Economist robert gordon lays out 4 reasons us growth may be. Robert gordon s notable history of economics and living standards by wendell cox 08202016 professor robert j. My interpretation of the information revolution is that it is increasingly burdened by diminishing returns.
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